This is concerning given that political transitions already present a particular challenge in democracies where the risk of mass atrocity is high, and where both foreign and domestic actors have used social media to shape or sway public opinion and influence political decisions. Social media in particular has been used by dictators, demagogues and democratic leaders alike who wish to influence or control political narratives and electoral outcomes through increasingly sophisticated disinformation campaigns. Such threats to peaceful political transitions have become more common in recent years thanks to an emerging weaponization of online media platforms to stoke division and polarize communities during these tense voting periods. Moreover, as Twitter in Kenya has been described as the ‘preferred space for political discourse online’, the brief will focus on the role that this platform plays in exacerbating and mitigating atrocity risks specifically.Įlection-related disinformation is a widespread phenomenon with the potential to contribute to mass atrocity crimes globally. As will be discussed, Kenyan elections over the last decade have suffered from domestic and foreign interference, and the rise of a coordinated ‘disinformation industry’ in the country now poses a particular threat to a peaceful political transition in August 2022. Given the presence of various atrocity risk indicators–including a history of and impunity for election-related violence, existing ethnic and land grievances, and growing class divisions–Kenya will be the primary focus of this brief. Through the lens of a single case study, this issue brief seeks to unpack the role that states, civil society, and social media can play in preventing mass atrocity crimes during electoral periods. But, as some malign actors have shown, these technologies can also be harnessed to exploit vulnerabilities and exacerbate underlying grievances. Rapid technological developments go some way towards strengthening early warning systems for preventative action, including where hate speech can be detected and targeted counter-speech campaigns deployed to mitigate offline harms.
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